Cor19 33 Tabellen 9.+10.7.2020

Finally, in a broader sense, the cultural and behavioral specificities of the populations of Central European countries have also helped contain the spread of the virus. A significant proportion of the population had already started to drastically limit their movements even before the lockdown was established, having seen how the situation was developing in Western Europe. According to geolocation data from Google, the use of public transport has fallen by nearly 60%, and traveling to work has decreased by 40%. Wearing face masks became mandatory early on, and traditionally, there is more social distancing in Central Europe than in Western or Southern Europe. Additionally, the proportion of rural populations, which are usually less mobile and engage in fewer social interactions, is higher in these countries than in the west of the continent (40% in Poland compared to 22% in Germany, 19% in France and 16% in the United Kingdom).

This positive outcome is one of the main reasons why the population is very satisfied with the authorities' response to the crisis: on March 10, 52.5% of Poles considered the government to be handling it very well or rather well, while only 22.6% expressed negative opinions. At the end of March, the Minister of Health, Łukasz Szumowski, a cardiologist and professor of medicine, was the third most popular political figure, after President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

Covid-19 and the crisis in the hospital sector

The radicality of the measures adopted by the Polish government can be taken as a sign that it was quick to recognize the severity of the pandemic. At the same time, it is likely also an admission of the inability of state services to care for infected members of the population effectively. Indeed, Poland's health sector suffers from chronic underinvestment. In 2018, public and private health spending accounted for only 6.3% of the country's GDP, compared with 8.8% in Italy and 11.2% in Germany and France. The country has approximately 10,000 respirators overall and 4.85 intensive care beds per 1,000 inhabitants, which is more than France (3.09‰), but less than Belgium (4.98‰) and Germany (6.02‰). Low wages and poor working conditions, which have led to several mass strikes by hospital staff in recent years, have driven many doctors and nurses to emigrate to the UK, Germany, Switzerland, and Scandinavia. Given the staffing challenges this has caused over the past few years, many Polish hospitals have been forced to close entire departments. The lack of medical personnel and underinvestment in hospitals have proven to be a serious burden to the system during the coronavirus crisis. According to the Ministry of Health, nearly one-third of infections are caused by contact in a hospital or clinic, whether with other patients or medical staff.

The economic impact of the health crisis

The Covid-19 epidemic will have a considerable impact on the Polish economy. According to various scenarios, GDP growth is expected to vary between a rise of 1.7% and a decrease of 10.7%, and unemployment may rise to a rate of between 5.4% and 10.2%. It is likely that the Polish economy will not begin to recover from the crisis until 2021. Given that less than 30% of Poles have any savings and that a quarter of workers - one of the highest rates in the EU - are in flexible forms of employment (self-employed status, task-based or piecework contracts) and therefore not covered by unemployment insurance, the economic impact of the crisis could jeopardize the government's popularity.

The weakening of the rule of law

The Covid-19 crisis has ultimately proved to be an opportunity for the Polish government to try and force through some controversial laws and strengthen the position of Andrzej Duda, the outgoing president and candidate for re-election.

The emergency law that the government passed on March 2 in preparation for the Covid-19 crisis was very quickly characterized as repressive, giving the authorities arbitrary power without judicial overview. Also, some observers claimed that the law established a de facto 180-day state of emergency, even though the Polish constitution already stipulates the framework of a state of emergency (excluding elections) and limits its duration to 90 days.

On April 16, the Polish Parliament, dominated by the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, re-examined the "Stop Abortion" bill. While the right to abortion is already highly restricted in Poland - it is allowed only when the continuance of the pregnancy endangers the life of the mother or in cases of incest, rape and severe fetal deformities - the bill, initiated by the Ordo Iuris Institute, an organization close to PiS, has proposed striking fetal deformities from the conditions allowing access to abortions. Given that this condition constitutes 95% of abortions performed in the country, such a change in the law would be tantamount to banning abortion entirely. Despite the ban on gatherings due to the pandemic, women's groups staged demonstrations near Parliament, forming a long line outside a grocery store and displaying banners and signs with their slogans. Due to the exceptional circumstances of the Covid-19 epidemic and the protests, MPs refused to vote on the proposal and referred it back to the committee until further notice. At the same time, Parliament referred to two other controversial bills back to committee. The first proposed to criminalize the promotion of underage sexual activity. According to its critics, its true aim is to ban sex education classes in schools. The other bill was aimed at blocking possible Jewish claims to property for which there are no living heirs in Poland after World War II.

Finally, Poles were due to elect their President on May 4 and 10, 2020. Because of the health crisis, Parliament initially considered postponing the vote. However, the lockdown measures have meant a shift in the campaign, from on the ground activities over to the media and the internet. As a result, outgoing President Andrzej Duda was able to largely dominate the media space, which is already largely controlled by the PiS, putting him in a position of strength. While the effective management of the coronavirus crisis has further strengthened his popularity, two factors are likely to have the opposite effect: the exit plan that went into force on April 20 and the inevitable economic impact of the crisis. The government, therefore, performed a U-turn, announcing that the elections would go ahead on May 10 and 24. On March 31, it introduced a bill to extend mail-in voting rights, since currently only Poles over the age of 75 and those unable to travel for medical reasons have the right to vote by post.

According to the Venice Commission (a Council of Europe advisory body on constitutional issues, democracy, and human rights), the essential features of electoral laws should not be changed less than a year before elections. On April 26, EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders said that the conditions were not right for "free" and "legitimate" elections to be held in Poland on May 10 because of the pandemic. "I am convinced that the Covid-19 crisis will raise all kinds of legal issues on the part of citizens and businesses, and to deal with this challenge we need a functioning and independent judiciary", said Reynders. Furthermore, on April 8, the European Court of Justice called for the suspension of the controversial judicial reforms that Poland approved in 2017, which subject Supreme Court justices and lower court judges to a disciplinary system.

Against the backdrop of this tense situation, Reporters Without Borders published its annual World Press Freedom Index in mid-April. Poland, along with Hungary, recorded its fifth consecutive drop, falling from 22nd in 2013 to 62nd in 2020. This ranking was a historic low for Poland. The report states that "The government’s drive to subjugate the judicial system and a growing tendency to criminalize defamation are beginning to have an effect on the freedom of expression of independent media outlets. Some courts are now using article 212 of the criminal code, under which journalists can be sentenced to up to a year in prison for defamation, although the civil code offers citizens all the protections they need if they are defamed".

Los números - [Uruguay: 22 muertos de Corona19]

Alto acatamiento

Medidas económicas

El sistema de salud

Día a día

Timeline

Analysis

Effective strategies to fight the epidemic

Covid-19 and the crisis in the hospital sector

The economic impact of the health crisis

The weakening of the rule of law